{"id":249,"date":"2026-08-24T05:13:18","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T05:13:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/?p=249"},"modified":"2026-08-24T05:13:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T05:13:18","slug":"%ec%8b%ac%ec%b8%b5-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%eb%a6%ac%ed%8f%ac%ed%8a%b8-%eb%8c%80%ec%a0%84%ed%99%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%a1%9c-2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/?p=249","title":{"rendered":"[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\n\n
\ud83c\udf10 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 \uc2ec\uce35 \ube0c\ub9ac\ud551<\/th>\nGlobal Economic Macro Analysis<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

[\uc2ec\uce35 \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \ub300\uc804\ud658\uacfc 3\ub300 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ucd1d\uc815\ub9ac<\/p>\n

\u26a1 \uc678\uc2e0 \uae34\uae09 3\uc904 \uc694\uc57d (Bloomberg \/ Reuters \/ Financial Times):<\/p>\n

\u2022<\/span>\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589, 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \u2018\uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub41c \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac 3.5%\uc120\u2019<\/span>\uacfc \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74<\/div>\n
\u2022<\/span>AI \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ubc0f \ud575\uc2ec \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ube14\ub85d\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubb34\uc5ed \ubd84\uc808\ud654 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\uc758 \ucd5c\ub300 5.2% \uc7a0\uc2dd<\/span> \uc804\ub9dd<\/div>\n
\u2022<\/span>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc0c1\uc5c5\uc6a9 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc0f \ube44\uc740\ud589 \uae08\uc735\uae30\uad00(NBFI) \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uacbd\uc0c9\uc774 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc678\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uc774\ub418\ub294 \uc9d5\ud6c4 \ud3ec\ucc29<\/div>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\uace1\uc810\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ud604\uc7ac, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \uc21c\ud658(Business Cycle)\uc758 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ud30c\ud3b8\ud654, \uae30\uc220 \ube14\ub85d\ud654, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uacb0\ud569\ub41c 3\uc911 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30(Poly-Crisis) \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8(Bloomberg)\uc640 \ud30c\uc774\ub0b8\uc15c\ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4(FT)\ub97c \ube44\ub86f\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc678\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc740 \uc77c\uc81c\ud788 \u201c\uae30\uc874\uc758 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubaa8\ub378\ub85c\ub294 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uae30 \ud798\ub4e0 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784 \uc2dc\ud504\ud2b8\uac00 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc744 \uac15\ud0c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d<\/span>\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf0d \uc678\uc2e0 \ud575\uc2ec \ud329\ud2b8 & \ud55c\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5:<\/p>\n

\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubd84\uc808\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc218\uc785 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc218\ucd9c \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc758 \uc601\uc5c5\uc774\uc775\ub960\uc744 \ud3c9\uade0 2.4%p \ud558\ub77d<\/span>\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc5ed\uc2dc \uace0\ud658\uc728\u00b7\uace0\uc720\uac00\u00b7\uace0\ube44\uc6a9\uc758 ‘\uc2e0(\u65b0) 3\uace0 \ud604\uc0c1’\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc120 \uad6c\ucd95\uc774 \uc2dc\uae09\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n
\ud83d\udccc \uc774 \uae00\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubaa9\ucc28 \uc694\uc57d<\/div>\n
01.<\/span> \ud574\uc678 \uc6d0\ubb38 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub0b4\uc6a9 \ubc88\uc5ed & \uc0ac\ud0dc \ubc1c\uc0dd \ubc30\uacbd<\/div>\n
02.<\/span> \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c vs \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 & \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c 3\ub2e8 \ube44\uad50\ud45c<\/div>\n
03.<\/span> \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc2dc\uac01 & \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub9dd \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 BEST 3<\/div>\n
04.<\/span> \ud55c\uad6d \ud22c\uc790\uc790\/\ub3c5\uc790\uac00 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uccb4\ud06c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 3\uac00\uc9c0 \ud589\ub3d9 \uc694\ub839<\/div>\n
05.<\/span> \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 Q&A BEST 3<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

1. \ud574\uc678 \uc6d0\ubb38 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub0b4\uc6a9 \ubc88\uc5ed & \uc0ac\ud0dc \ubc1c\uc0dd \ubc30\uacbd<\/h3>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc800\ub110(WSJ)\uacfc \ub85c\uc774\ud130(Reuters)\uac00 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud55c 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uac70\uc2dc \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uace8\uc790\ub294 \u201c\uc800\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc790\uc720\ubb34\uc5ed\u00b7\uc548\uc815\uc801 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc758 \uc2dc\ub300\ub294 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc885\uc2dd\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\u201d<\/span>\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c 20\uc5ec \ub144\uac04 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc724\ud65c\uc720 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud588\ub358 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778(GVC)\uc774 \uc548\ubcf4 \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \ub3d9\ub9f9\uad6d \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd(Friend-shoring)\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc7ac\ud3b8\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uac00\uc758 \uc601\uad6c\uc801 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\ud2b9\ud788 \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF)\uc740 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\uac00 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc778 \uc138\uacc4 GDP \ub300\ube44 100% \ub3cc\ud30c\ub97c \ub208\uc55e\uc5d0 \ub450\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4<\/span>\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac01\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc801\uc790\uac00 \ub204\uc801\ub41c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub41c \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc774\uc790 \uc0c1\ud658 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uac00\uc911\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \ubbfc\uac04 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 ‘\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ud06c\ub77c\uc6b0\ub529 \uc544\uc6c3(\ubc00\uc5b4\ub0b4\uae30)’ \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b3\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc124\uc0c1\uac00\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ud6c4\ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8\u00b7\uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uc6b4\ud558\uc758 \ubb3c\ub958 \ubcd1\ubaa9 \ud604\uc0c1\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \ubc0f \ub3d9\uc720\ub7fd\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc784\uc744 2024\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 \ub300\ube44 \ubb34\ub824 45% \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1<\/span>\uc2dc\ud0a4\uba70 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\uc758 \ub1cc\uad00\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac \uc7a1\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 \uc2e4\uc804 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d \uac00\uc774\ub4dc<\/b>
\uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8:<\/div>\n

\ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubd84\uc808\uacfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ube44\uc6a9 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\uc744 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \u2018\uc7ac\uc815 \uac74\uc804\uc131\uacfc \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654 \uc5ed\ub7c9\u2019<\/span>\uc744 \uac16\ucd98 \uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \uae30\uc5c5\ub9cc\uc774 \uc0dd\uc874\ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c vs \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 & \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c 3\ub2e8 \ube44\uad50\ud45c<\/h3>\n

\ud604\uc7ac \uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c \uad8c\uc5ed\ubcc4 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uc740 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc591\uadf9\ud654 \uc591\uc0c1\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \uc774\uc775 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub825\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc720\ub7fd\uacfc \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc740 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ud1b5\ud654 \uac00\uce58 \ud558\ub77d\uc758 \uc774\uc911\uace0\ub97c \uacaa\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\uad6c\ubd84 \uc9c0\ud45c\t\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d (\ubbf8\uad6d\/EU)\t\uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 (\ub300\ud55c\ubbfc\uad6d)<\/p>\n

\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubc0f \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\t\ubbf8\uad6d 4.0\u223c4.25% \uc218\uc900 \uace0\ucc29\ud654<\/p>\n

(\uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac 3.2\u223c3.5% \uc0c1\ud5a5<\/span>)\t\ud55c\ubbf8 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 1.0\u223c1.5%p \uc720\uc9c0<\/p>\n

\uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc81c\uc57d<\/p>\n

\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00(CPI) \ucd94\uc138\t\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\u00b7\uc784\uae08 \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c 2.8%\ub300 \uc800\ud56d<\/p>\n

\uc644\uc804\ud55c 2% \ub3c4\ub2ec \uc9c0\uc5f0\t\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\ud658\uc728 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c 2.5\u223c2.9% \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c<\/span> \ub4f1\ub77d \ubc18\ubcf5<\/p>\n

\uc678\ud658 \ubc0f \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\ucd9c\uc785\t\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 104\u223c106\uc120 \uac15\uc138<\/p>\n

\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638\t\uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728 1,360\u223c1,420\uc6d0\ub300<\/span> \ub192\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub178\ucd9c<\/p>\n

\uc0b0\uc5c5\/\uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c \ub3d9\ud5a5\tAI \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud22c\uc790 \uc9c0\uc18d, \uc804\ud1b5 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ub454\ud654\uc138\t\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub3c5\uc8fc \uc18d \uc11d\uc720\ud654\ud559\u00b7\ucca0\uac15 \ub4f1 \uc804\ud1b5 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ub9c8\uc9c4 \uc555\ubc15<\/p>\n

3. \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc2dc\uac01 & \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub9dd \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 BEST 3<\/h3>\n

\uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc0ad\uc2a4, \ubaa8\uac74\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac, \ube14\ub799\ub85d \ub4f1 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589(IB)\uc758 \uc218\uc11d \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ubd80\ud130 2027\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uacbd\uc81c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c 3\uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc555\ucd95\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #4<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 1: \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\ub79c\ub529 \ud6c4 ‘\uace0\ube44\uc6a9 \uc800\uc131\uc7a5(High-Cost Plateau)’ \ub274\ub178\uba40 (\ud655\ub960 50%)<\/p>\n

\uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4\ub294 \ud53c\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2.5\u223c3%\ub300\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uba70 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0 3.5% \uc774\ud558\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd94\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc815\uccb4 \uad6d\uba74<\/span>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc790\ubcf8\uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc838 \ud55c\uacc4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc870\uc815\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 2: \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\ubc1c 2\ucc28 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 (\ud655\ub960 30%)<\/p>\n

\uc911\ub3d9 \ubc0f \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ub85c\uc758 \ucda9\ub3cc \uaca9\ud654, \ud575\uc2ec \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958 \uc218\ucd9c \ud1b5\uc81c \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc7ac\uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 1%\ub300\ub85c \ucd94\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 4% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc7ac\ubc18\ub4f1<\/span>\ud558\uc5ec \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 3: AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud601\uc2e0\ubc1c \uace8\ub514\ub77d\uc2a4 \uc7ac\uc9c4\uc785 (\ud655\ub960 20%)<\/p>\n

2024\u223c2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8\ub85c \uc9d1\ud589\ub41c \uc0dd\uc131\ud615 AI \ubc0f \uc790\ub3d9\ud654 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uacfc \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc744 1.5%p \uc774\uc0c1 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub824, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5c6\ub294 \uace0\uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \ub2ec\uc131<\/span>\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\ub85c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

4. \ud55c\uad6d \ud22c\uc790\uc790\/\ub3c5\uc790\uac00 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uccb4\ud06c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 3\uac00\uc9c0 \ud589\ub3d9 \uc694\ub839<\/h3>\n

\ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1c\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uad8c\uc790\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uace0\uc218\uc775 \ucd94\uad6c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825 \ubcf4\uc874\uacfc \ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc131<\/b>\uc744 \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120 \uc21c\uc704\uc5d0 \ub450\uc5b4\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #5<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984 \ubc0f \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 \ube44\uc911 20\u223c30% \ud655\ubcf4<\/p>\n

\uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574, \uc5f0 4%\ub300 \ud655\uc815 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44(T-Bills) \ubc0f \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc30\ub2f9 ETF<\/span>\ub97c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \uc548\uc804\ud310\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n

\uac00\uaca9 \uacb0\uc815\ub825(Pricing Power)\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ub3c5\uc810\uc801 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \uc555\ucd95<\/p>\n

\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc804\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc789\uc5ec\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(FCF) \ub9c8\uc9c4\uc728 25% \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \ucd08\uc6b0\ub7c9 \ub3c5\uc810 \uae30\uc5c5<\/span>\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc2ac\ub9bc\ud654\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac \ub300\ucd9c \uc0c1\ud658 \ubc0f \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubc84\ud37c 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc720\uc9c0<\/p>\n

\uad6d\ub0b4\uc678 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uad6c\uc870\uc774\ubbc0\ub85c, \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44 \ucd95\uc18c\ub97c \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120 \uc7ac\ud14c\ud06c \ubaa9\ud45c<\/span>\ub85c \uc0bc\uace0 \ube44\uc0c1 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 \uc2e4\uc804 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d \uac00\uc774\ub4dc<\/b>
\uc2e4\uc804 \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1 \uafc0\ud301:<\/div>\n

\uc790\uc0b0 \ubc30\ubd84 \uc2dc ‘\uc8fc\uc2dd 60 : \ucc44\uad8c 40’\uc758 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801 \uacf5\uc2dd \ub300\uc2e0, \u2018\uc8fc\uc2dd 45 : \ub2e8\uae30\ucc44\uad8c 30 : \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\/\uae08 15 : \ud604\uae08 10\u2019<\/span>\uc758 \ub2e4\uac01\ud654 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 2026\ub144 \uac70\uc2dc \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\ub300 \ub099\ud3ed(MDD)\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud6e8\uc52c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

5. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 Q&A BEST 3<\/h3>\n

\n

\"[\uc2ec\uce35
[\uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \uae30\ub85c: 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #6<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\u2753 Q. \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(R-Star)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc2e4\uc0dd\ud65c\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc758\ubbf8\uc778\uac00\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacfc\uc5f4\ub3c4 \uce68\uccb4\ub3c4 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc774\ub860\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70 2010\ub144\ub300\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \u2018\ucd08\uc800\uae08\ub9ac(1\u223c2%\ub300)\u2019 \uc2dc\ub300\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac00\uae30 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4<\/span>\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uacfc \uc2e0\uc6a9\ub300\ucd9c \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ud558\ud55c\uc120\uc774 \uc601\uad6c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\u2753 Q. \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud574\ub3c4 \uc65c \uc2dc\uc911 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \uc548 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub098\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \uacf5\uae09 \uacfc\uc789\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 4% \ucd08\ubc18\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc84\ud2f0\uba74\uc11c<\/span> \uc2dc\uc911 \uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \ub300\ucd9c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub3d9\ubc18 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\u2753 Q. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc7ac\ud3b8\uc774 \ud55c\uad6d \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\uc778\uac00\uc694, \uc704\uae30\uc778\uac00\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> \uc591\ub0a0\uc758 \uac80\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucca8\ub2e8 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \uc774\ucc28\uc804\uc9c0, \ubc14\uc774\uc624 \ub4f1 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub3d9\ub9f9\uad6d \uc911\uc2ec \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c \ubd84\uc57c\ub294 \ub3c5\uc810\uc801 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ub204\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc911\uad6d \ubc0f \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ubc94\uc6a9 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 \ub9c8\uc9c4 \uae09\uac10\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucd95\uc18c<\/span>\uc758 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\ud83c\udf10 \uc800\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ucd1d\ud3c9 & \ucd5c\uc885 \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8<\/p>\n

2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ud604\uc7ac \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \ubaa9\ub3c4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 ‘\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ud48d\ud30c’\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc ‘\uae30\ud6c4 \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc800\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubb34\ud55c \uc138\uacc4\ud654\uc758 \ud658\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098, \ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984 \ucc3d\ucd9c \ub2a5\ub825\uacfc \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\u00b7\uae30\uc220 \uc548\ubcf4\ub97c \uac16\ucd98 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uc790\uc0b0 \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624<\/span>\ub97c \uc7ac\uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub9cc\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ud130\ub110 \ub05d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uc0b0 \uc99d\uc2dd\uc758 \uc2b9\uae30\ub97c \uc7a1\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ud83c\udf10 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 \uc2ec\uce35 \ube0c\ub9ac\ud551 Global Economic Macro Analysis [\uc2ec\uce35 \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8] 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \ub300\uc804\ud658\uacfc 3\ub300 \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ucd1d\uc815\ub9ac \u26a1 \uc678\uc2e0 \uae34\uae09 3\uc904 \uc694\uc57d (Bloomberg \/ Reuters \/ Financial Times): \u2022\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589, 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \u2018\uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub41c \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac 3.5%\uc120\u2019\uacfc \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74 \u2022AI \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ubc0f \ud575\uc2ec \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ube14\ub85d\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubb34\uc5ed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[103,104,105,106,109,108,107],"class_list":["post-249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-103","tag-104","tag-105","tag-106","tag-109","tag-108","tag-107"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}