{"id":329,"date":"2026-08-25T23:16:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T23:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/?p=329"},"modified":"2026-08-25T23:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T23:16:13","slug":"2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%eb%8c%80%ec%a0%84%ed%99%98%ec%9d%98-%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0%ec%a0%90-%eb%b3%b5%ed%95%a9-%ec%9c%84%ea%b8%b0-%ec%86%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/?p=329","title":{"rendered":"2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026 Global Macro Economic Outlook<\/p>\n

2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810\uacfc \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc790\uc0b0 \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5<\/p>\n

\u26a1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC BREAKING NEWS (Bloomberg \/ Reuters \/ WSJ)<\/p>\n

\u2022<\/span>Fed & ECB \uc815\ucc45 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1 \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654: \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc124\uc815\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ube44\ub3d9\uae30\ud654\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 150bp \uc774\uc0c1 \ud655\ub300<\/span>\ub418\uba70 \ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uadf9\ub300\ud654.<\/div>\n
\u2022<\/span>AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c CAPEX \ud68c\uc218\uae30 \uc9c4\uc785: \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5 \ud22c\uc790(CAPEX)\uac00 \ub2e8\uc21c \ud655\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc218\uc775 \ucc3d\ucd9c \ubc0f \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc804\ud658<\/span>, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc9c0\ud615 \uc7ac\ud3b8.<\/div>\n
\u2022<\/span>\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ube14\ub85d\ud654 \ubc0f \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1: \ud504\ub80c\ub4dc\uc1fc\uc5b4\ub9c1 \uc2ec\ud654\uc640 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uad00\uc138 \uc7a5\ubcbd\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 OECD \ud3c9\uade0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 2.8% \ub0b4\uc678 \uc218\ub834 \uc804\ub9dd<\/span>.<\/div>\n

2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ub97c \uad00\ud1b5\ud558\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4\ub098 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c 3\ub144\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uccb4\uc81c\uc640 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd84\uc5f4, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud30c\uad34\uc801 AI \ud601\uc2e0\uc774 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9ac\uba70 ‘\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810’\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc800\ub110(WSJ)\uacfc \ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8(Bloomberg) \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc678\uc2e0\uc740 2026\ub144\uc744 \uae30\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc911\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub274\ub178\uba40\ub85c \uad73\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\ub41c \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud55c \uad6d\uac00\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5\ub9cc\uc774 \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\ub294 ‘K\uc790\ud615 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 \uc591\uadf9\ud654’\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc77c\uc81c\ud788 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf0d \uc678\uc2e0 \ud575\uc2ec \ud329\ud2b8 & \ud55c\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud30c\uae09 \uc601\ud5a5<\/p>\n

\uc678\uc2e0 \uc5f0\ud569 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778\uc758 \uc7ac\ud3b8\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud55c\uad6d\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc218\ucd9c \ub3d9\ub825\uc778 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \ubaa8\ube4c\ub9ac\ud2f0, \uc774\ucc28\uc804\uc9c0 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc758 \uc218\uc775 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc7ac\uc815\uc758\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc758 1,300\uc6d0 \uc911\ud6c4\ubc18 \uace0\ucc29\ud654<\/span>\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uacbd\ub85c\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc804\ud1b5\uc801 \uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub09c \uc815\ubc00\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0 \ubc30\ubd84\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n
\ud83d\udccc \uc774 \uae00\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubaa9\ucc28 \uc694\uc57d<\/div>\n
01.<\/span> \ud574\uc678 \uc6d0\ubb38 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub0b4\uc6a9 \ubc88\uc5ed & \uc0ac\ud0dc \ubc1c\uc0dd \ubc30\uacbd<\/div>\n
02.<\/span> \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c vs \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 & \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c 3\ub2e8 \ube44\uad50\ud45c<\/div>\n
03.<\/span> \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc2dc\uac01 & \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub9dd \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 BEST 3<\/div>\n
04.<\/span> \ud55c\uad6d \ud22c\uc790\uc790\/\ub3c5\uc790\uac00 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uccb4\ud06c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 3\uac00\uc9c0 \ud589\ub3d9 \uc694\ub839<\/div>\n
05.<\/span> \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 Q&A BEST 3<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

1. \ud574\uc678 \uc6d0\ubb38 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub0b4\uc6a9 \ubc88\uc5ed & \uc0ac\ud0dc \ubc1c\uc0dd \ubc30\uacbd<\/h3>\n

\ud30c\uc774\ub0b8\uc15c\ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4(FT)\uc640 \ub85c\uc774\ud130(Reuters)\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, 2026\ub144 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 2010\ub144\ub300\uc758 ‘\uc800\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc800\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc790\uc720\ubb34\uc5ed’ \uccb4\uc81c\ub85c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 3\ub300 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825(\ud0c8\ud0c4\uc18c \uc804\ud658 \ube44\uc6a9, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubc29\uc704\ube44 \uc99d\uc561, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc6b0\ud68c \ube44\uc6a9)\uc774 \uae30\uc800\uc5d0 \uc790\ub9ac \uc7a1\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc801\uc790 \ud655\ub300\uc640 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\ub7c9 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ud558\ubc29\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud0c0\uae43\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ub97c \uae30\uc874 2.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.2% \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815<\/span>\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uacfc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ) \uc5ed\uc2dc \uac01\uc790\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00 \uada4\uc801\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub3c5\uc790 \ub178\uc120\uc744 \uac77\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uacfc\uac70\ucc98\ub7fc \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc77c\uc81c\ud788 \uc644\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ud3b4\ub294 ‘\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub3d9\uc870\ud654 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc7a5\uc138’\ub294 \uae30\ub300\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

2. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c vs \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 & \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c 3\ub2e8 \ube44\uad50\ud45c<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac70\uc2dc\uc801 \ud658\uacbd \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \ub300\ud55c\ubbfc\uad6d \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uaca9\ucc28\uc640 \uc0c1\ud638\uc791\uc6a9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uae30\uc900 \ud575\uc2ec \uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c \ube44\uad50 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uad6c\ubd84 \/ \uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c\t\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c (\ubbf8\uad6d \/ \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc911\uc2ec)\t\ub300\ud55c\ubbfc\uad6d (\uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc0b0\uc5c5)<\/p>\n

\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubc0f \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\t\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac 3.25\u223c3.50% \ub3c4\ub2ec \ud6c4 \ub3d9\uacb0, \uc778\ud558 \ud3ed \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\t\ud55c\ubbf8 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 100\u223c125bp \uc720\uc9c0 \uc18d \uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44 \uad00\ub9ac\ub85c \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc720\uc9c0<\/p>\n

\uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 (GDP)\t\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc728 2.1% \uacac\uace0\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5<\/span>, \uc720\ub7fd 1.1% \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc138\t\uc5f0\uac04 2.0\u223c2.2% \uc131\uc7a5 \uc218\ub834<\/span>, IT \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc218\ucd9c \uc758\uc874\ub3c4 \uc2ec\ud654<\/p>\n

\uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubc0f \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\tAI \uc5d4\ud130\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988 \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c, \ud5ec\uc2a4\ucf00\uc5b4 \uac15\uc138\tHBM\/\ucca8\ub2e8 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9d5, \ubc29\uc704\uc0b0\uc5c5, K-\ubc14\uc774\uc624 \uc120\ubcc4\uc801 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ub825 \uc720\uc9c0<\/p>\n

\ud658\uc728 \ubc0f \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ud658\uacbd\t\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 101\u223c104 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c, \uae30\ucd95\ud1b5\ud654 \uc120\ud638 \uc9c0\uc18d\t\uc6d0\/\ub2ec\ub7ec 1,330\u223c1,380\uc6d0 \ubc34\ub4dc<\/span> \ud615\uc131, \ud658\uc728 \uc0c1\ub2e8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc794\uc874<\/p>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

3. \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc2dc\uac01 & \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub9dd \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 BEST 3<\/h3>\n

\uc138\uacc4\uc740\ud589(WB)\uacfc \uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc0ad\uc2a4, \ubaa8\uac74\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac \ub4f1 \uc720\uc218\uc758 \ub9ac\uc11c\uce58 \ud558\uc6b0\uc2a4\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 2026\u223c2027\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\uac1c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c 3\uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc555\ucd95\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 A: AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud601\uba85 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 ‘\uc2e0(\u65b0) \uace8\ub514\ub77d\uc2a4’ (\ud655\ub960 45%)<\/p>\n

\uc0dd\uc131\ud615 AI\uc640 \ub85c\ubcf4\ud2f1\uc2a4\uac00 \uc81c\uc870\u00b7\uae08\uc735\u00b7\uc758\ub8cc \ub4f1 \uc804\ubc29\uc704 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc735\ud569\ub418\uba70 \ucd1d\uc694\uc18c\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131(TFP)\uc774 0.8%p \uc774\uc0c1 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1 \uc5c6\uc774\ub3c4 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\ud558\uba70, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc99d\uc2dc\uac00 \uc2e4\uc801 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc801 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc774\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \ud615\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 B: \ud1b5\ud654 \ubd84\uc808\ud654\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 ‘\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uace0\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc911\uc131\uc7a5’ (\ud655\ub960 40%)<\/p>\n

\ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed\uc8fc\uc758 \uc2ec\ud654\uc640 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubcd1\ubaa9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 2.0%\uc5d0 \uc548\ucc29\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 2.5\u223c3.0% \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub048\uc801\ud558\uac8c(Sticky) \uc720\uc9c0<\/span>\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc838 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\ud658 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uacaa\ub294 \ud55c\uacc4 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ubd80\uac01\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 C: \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c ‘\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c’ (\ud655\ub960 15%)<\/p>\n

\uc911\ub3d9 \ubc0f \ub3d9\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uac08\ub4f1 \uaca9\ud654\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc640 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc784\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc774 \ub2e8\uc808\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 1%\ub300\ub85c \uc8fc\uc800\uc549\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc3e0\ub9bc\uc774 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 \uc2e4\uc804 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d \uac00\uc774\ub4dc<\/b>
Global Macro Analyst Insight<\/div>\n

\ud604\uc7ac \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\ub294 ‘\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 A\uc640 B\uc758 \ud63c\ud569\ud615 \uad6d\uba74’\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc804\uba74\uc801 \ubd95\uad34\ub97c \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uacf5\ud3ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6cc\ud560 \ud544\uc694\ub294 \uc5c6\uc73c\ub098, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubb34\ucc28\ubcc4\uc801 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uadf9\ub3c4\ub85c \uacbd\uacc4<\/span>\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #4<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

4. \ud55c\uad6d \ud22c\uc790\uc790\/\ub3c5\uc790\uac00 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uccb4\ud06c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 3\uac00\uc9c0 \ud589\ub3d9 \uc694\ub839<\/h3>\n

\ubcc0\ud654\ub41c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub9e4\ud06c\ub85c \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1c\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc640 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ub9ac\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2e4\ucc9c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 3\ub300 \uc0dd\uc874 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uccab\uc9f8, ‘\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud604\uae08 \ud750\ub984’\uc744 \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0 \ube44\uc911 \uc720\uc9c0<\/p>\n

\uc6d0\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6d0\ud654 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\ub9cc 100% \ubb36\uc5ec \uc788\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ud53c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 ETF, \ubc30\ub2f9 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc, \ub610\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc804\uccb4 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \ucd5c\uc18c 25\u223c35%\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ubc30\ubd84<\/span>\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub458\uc9f8, ‘\uc601\uc5c5\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(OCF)’\uacfc ‘\ubd80\ucc44 \uc0c1\ud658 \ub2a5\ub825’\uc774 \uac80\uc99d\ub41c \ud004\ub9ac\ud2f0 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc9d1\uc911<\/p>\n

\uc800\uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\ub300\uc758 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac \uc911\uc2ec \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc\ub294 \uc774\uc81c \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \ud560\uc778\uc744 \ud53c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\uae30\uc790\ubcf8\uc774\uc775\ub960(ROE)\uc774 15% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba70, \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc790\uccb4 \uc789\uc5ec\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(FCF)\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uc8fc\ud658\uc6d0\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \ubcd1\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c 1\uc704 \uacfc\uc810 \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc14b\uc9f8, \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc0f \uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44 \uad6c\uc870\uc870\uc815\uacfc \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1<\/p>\n

\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 1%\ub300\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ud070 \uc774\uc790 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac \ub300\ucd9c \ube44\uc911\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\uace0, \uc5f0\uac04 \uc6d0\ub9ac\uae08 \uc0c1\ud658 \ube44\uc728(DSR)\uc744 30% \uc774\ub0b4\ub85c \uc5c4\uaca9\ud788 \ud1b5\uc81c<\/span>\ud558\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34 \uac74\uc804\uc131 \uad00\ub9ac\uac00 \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 \uc2e4\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\ubc30\ubd84 \uccb4\ud06c\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8<\/h3>\n

\uc704\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\uace0\uc758 \uc548\uc804\ud310\uc740 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 3\u223c6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uce58 \uc0dd\ud65c\ube44 \ubc0f \uae34\uae09 \uc6b4\uc804\uc790\uae08\uc740 CMA\ub098 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c\ud615 \ud30c\ud0b9 \ud1b5\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc548\uc804\ud558\uac8c \ubcf4\uad00\ud558\uc5ec, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub3cc\ubc1c \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \uc6b0\ub7c9 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ud5d0\uac12\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc2e4\ud0c4(Dry Powder)<\/span>\uc744 \uc0c1\uc2dc \ud655\ubcf4\ud574 \ub450\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #5<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

5. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub274\uc2a4 Q&A BEST 3<\/h3>\n

\u2753 Q. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uba74 \ud55c\uad6d \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\ub3c4 \uacfc\uac70\ucc98\ub7fc \ud3ed\ub4f1\ud558\ub098\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> A. \uacfc\uac70 2020\ub144 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc2dc\uae30\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\uba74\uc801 \uc790\uc0b0 \ud3ed\ub4f1\uc740 \uc5b4\ub835\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 ‘\uc704\uae30 \ub300\uc751\ud615 \uc81c\ub85c\uae08\ub9ac’\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c ‘\uacbd\uae30\uc758 \uc5f0\ucc29\ub959\uc744 \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubbf8\uc138\uc870\uc815(Insurance Cut)’ \uc131\uaca9\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ucd9c \uaddc\uc81c\uc640 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uc18c\ub4dd \uc99d\uac00\uc728\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub54c \ud575\uc2ec \uc785\uc9c0\uc640 \ucd08\uc6b0\ub7c9 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c\ub9cc \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9ac\ub294 \ucd08\uc591\uadf9\ud654\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\u2753 Q. AI \uac70\ud488\ub860\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc11d\ud559\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud3c9\uac00\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4\uac00\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> A. \ub2f7\ucef4\ubc84\ube14\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \ud604\uc7ac \ube45\ud14c\ud06c \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc774\uc775\uacfc \ud604\uae08 \ucc3d\ucd9c\ub825\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc9d1\ud589\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc, \uc778\ud504\ub77c(\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\u00b7\ub370\uc774\ud130\uc13c\ud130) \uad6c\ucd95 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\uc81c B2B \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud5a5\uc0c1 \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4\ub85c \uc774\uc775 \ucc3d\ucd9c \ucd95\uc774 \uc774\ub3d9<\/span>\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc8fc\uac00 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uacaa\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc9c0\ubc30\uc801\uc778 \ud3c9\uac00\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\u2753 Q. 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\ub9dd\ud55c \ub300\uccb4 \ud22c\uc790\ucc98\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uac00\uc694?<\/p>\n

A.<\/b> A. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub825\ub9dd \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud655\ucda9\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uad6c\ub9ac \ub4f1 \ud575\uc2ec \uad11\ubb3c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud5f7\uc9c0 \uc218\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uae08(Gold) \ubc0f \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uc5f0\ub3d9\ucc44(TIPS)<\/span>\uac00 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdb0\uc904 \uc720\ub825\ud55c \ub300\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uaf3d\ud799\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/div>\n

\n

\"2026\ub144
2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810, \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784\uacfc \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 – \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 #6<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfaf \ucd5c\uc885 \ube0c\ub9ac\ud551 1\uc904 \uc694\uc57d \ubc0f \uc800\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ucd1d\ud3c9<\/h3>\n

“2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ubc30\ub97c \ub744\uc6b0\ub294 \ub9cc\uc870(High Tide)\uc758 \uc2dc\ub300\uac00 \ub05d\ub098\uace0, \ud0c1\uc6d4\ud55c \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825\uc744 \uac16\ucd98 \uc120\ubc15\ub9cc\uc774 \ud56d\ud574\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud558\ub294 ‘\uc120\ubcc4\uacfc \uc555\ucd95\uc758 \uc2dc\ub300’<\/b>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.”<\/p>\n

\uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c\uc758 \ub178\uc774\uc988\uc5d0 \uc77c\ud76c\uc77c\ube44\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc138\uacc4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uba70 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc6d0\uce59 \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uc2dc\uae30 \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2026 Global Macro Economic Outlook 2026\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd: \ub300\uc804\ud658\uc758 \ubd84\uae30\uc810\uacfc \ubcf5\ud569 \uc704\uae30 \uc18d \uc790\uc0b0 \uc0dd\uc874 \uc804\ub7b5 \u26a1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC BREAKING NEWS (Bloomberg \/ Reuters \/ WSJ) \u2022Fed & ECB \uc815\ucc45 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1 \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654: \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc124\uc815\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ube44\ub3d9\uae30\ud654\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 150bp \uc774\uc0c1 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uba70 \ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uadf9\ub300\ud654. \u2022AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c CAPEX \ud68c\uc218\uae30 \uc9c4\uc785: \ube45\ud14c\ud06c […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[164,168,165,105,167,166,107],"class_list":["post-329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-164","tag-ai","tag-165","tag-105","tag-167","tag-166","tag-107"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mpluskj.dothome.co.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}